N.R. Mukimova1 , J. Mirzohomidzoda2
Annotation:
The article examines the dynamics and structural proportions of industrial production in the Republic of Tajikistan based on data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan. Over the period under review, the total volume of industrial output increased 2.25-fold, and the physical volume index of production never fell below 108% year-on-year. Nevertheless, this growth is predominantly resource-based in nature: the share of the extractive sector reached 24.8%, while the combined share of mechanical engineering and chemical production did not exceed 2.7% of industrial output. The intensity of structural shifts was measured using the Ryabtsev index across four dimensions - the sectoral structure of output, the regional distribution of production, the structure of employment, and the commodity structure of exports. The index values ranged from 0.062 to 0.263. The maximum value was recorded for export structure, although it reflects a redistribution of shares within the resource-based segment rather than technological upgrading of exports. Based on the results of the analysis, recommendations in the field of industrial policy are formulated. The recommendations include reorienting policy toward processing, targeted support for mechanical engineering and the chemical industry, import substitution, regional diversification of production capacities, and aligning workforce training with sectoral priorities.
Keywords: industrial production, structural analysis, Ryabtsev index, structural shifts, sectoral proportions, regional concentration, Republic of Tajikistan.