Jalilzoda Abdurashid Abdukamol

Annotation: 

This article presents an empirical study of the interaction and alignment between the output of specialists from higher education institutions and the actual demand from enterprises in key sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2010–2023. The quantitative tools used include the integration coefficient 𝐾 𝑖 (ratio of graduates to demand), its growth rate 𝑇 𝑝 , and the aggregated balance index 𝐼 𝑡 . The analysis reveals both persistent and cyclical imbalances: a significant oversupply of graduates in the fields of "Economics", "Education", and "Culture and Arts", and a chronic shortage of specialists in "Healthcare‖". The results are interpreted using the typology of labor market and higher education integration (Types I–IV), providing a basis for well-founded recommendations for adjusting student admission plans, forming state educational orders, and forecasting labor market needs. The presented indicators and methodology for calculating the aggregated index 𝐼 𝑡 can be used to improve the alignment of educational output with actual economic needs and support strategic planning in human resource policy.

Keywords: labor market; higher education system; integration coefficient; growth rate; staff balance; Tajikistan.