Chorshanbiev Sadriddin Razhabbokievich

Annotation:

This article examines methodological approaches to developing electricity demand forecasting scenarios based on an analysis of electricity generation and consumption indicators. The author conducted a comprehensive review of domestic and foreign scientific literature, systematizing existing methods of short-term and long-term forecasting. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of a proprietary predictive model for electricity consumption growth for the economy of Tajikistan through 2030 using the EViews software toolkit. The paper presents modeling results for three development scenarios. A comparative analysis showed that the deviation of the obtained calculated values from the target indicators of state programs is 2.4%. This result is within the permissible statistical error, confirming the predictive accuracy and adequacy of the proposed model.

Keywords: electric power infrastructure, demand, forecasting, model, government development programs, multiple regression, electricity generation.